The firm also suggested that the independents have gone from the hunted to become the hunters in recent years, despite the chain outlets still dominating.
Frances Perrin, consultant at Pragma, wrote in a blog post: “While the independents might not be a threat individually to the likes of Costa and Starbucks, as a group they play an important role in the UK coffee market.
“In catering to an increasingly sophisticated customer they drive innovation, forcing the chains to up their game, particularly regarding store refurbishment and product development. And that can only be a good thing for the consumer.
“The challenge for independents is how to scale their business while maintaining product quality and without losing their distinctive character.”
The number of coffee outlets in the UK has almost trebled in the last six years growing from just under 7,000 in 2010, to nearly 19,000 in 2016 and the growth is set to continue to over 27,000 by 2020.
Specifically looking at independents, there are currently around 1,400 in the UK, a number which is expected to double by 2020.
Perrin added: “The independent coffee shop had its obituary written when Starbucks and Costa started to expand across the UK in the late 90s. However, in recent years we have seen the hunted become hunters with the emergence of a new stronger independent sector, now challenging the bigger brands for market share.
“Although chain outlets still dominate, independents are forcing established brands to keep up with new trends and consumer demands. The now ubiquitous flat white was introduced into the UK by independents and many chains are now selling specialist products. Starbucks, for example, is offering cold brew coffee, which only a few years ago would have been unheard of by the majority of consumers.”
Pragma is a leading consultancy which specialises in retail and consumer markets, airports and commercial spaces.